Happy Thanksgiving

Happy thanksgiving.

Where Have You Been?

So it's that time in the semester when things are starting to get busier. I'm not sure how often I'll be able to post on here, but if anything important comes up, I'll be sure to let you know.

Election Update

I'm following along on television and the internet, but if you check Intrade, you'll notice a lot of movement, both in individual states and in the national race: in which McCain is now down below 3%.

Election Day

As you've probably noticed, I've been spending an inordinate amount of time blogging on here about the 2008 Presidential election. Now that it's finally upon us, I'm going to have a busy day of doing other things, before I watch the results tonight, with the rest of you. The New York Times has a piece about things to watch for in the evening election coverage. Networks won't call states until after the polls close, which starts to happen in a meaningful way between 7:00 - 8:30 EST. If Obama is having trouble in some of those initial polls, and/or if networks seem hesitant to call important states, it could portend a much tighter race than the polling data suggests.

All of that said, I think it's worth paying close attention to the Senate races. There are a number of pretty close, incredibly important Senate races, including in Minnesota, Georgia, and even potentially in my home state of Kentucky, where the Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell is reportedly only up by 5 points in polls that have a margin of error of almost 4 points. If people like McConnell start losing their seats, this will be much bigger for the Dems than even conventional wisdom has it. And I think that's possible.

My money is on a real rout. I think states like Georgia, which many are now giving to the GOP, will be close. Unless people are a lot more racist that they're letting on, this is going to be something to see.

Go get your "I Voted" sticker; I'm wearing one right now.

Down in the Markets

Enough with polls for the moment, the numbers on intrade have jumped around a lot in the past few hours. Obama is now at a projected 91.7% chance of being elected President, whereas McCain is down to 9.8%. Florida and Ohio are both up big-time for Obama on the futures prediction market.

The Story of the Crowd, Part III

For what it's worth, today Paul Krugman agreed with my assessment of the future of the Republican party, arguing that it will become more, not less, extreme. If you've been following this blog, you know that I predicted this several months ago, and now that a big Obama victory has become mainstream thinking (as I also predicted, back when the polls were even), thinkers are turning to the future.

He's so far ahead in the polls, we don't even need to vote, right?