Watch The Skies

So it has now become conventional wisdom that Barack Obama has a commanding lead in most polls, and that John McCain is in serious trouble. As a democrat, this worries me. It worries me because much of Obama's lead is predicated on voter turn-out, and voter turn-out can be notoriously low in key places if there is a general sentiment that a candidate is so far ahead in the polls he no longer needs any votes.

The other danger can be weather. Poor weather, i.e. rain or snow generally dissuades exactly the kind of first time voters, who may decide next Tuesday that Barack Obama can win without them.

So here's where I'm looking, if we assume that much of Obama's support in many of these highly contested states will be in urban areas, (granted, it's a week away, and 7-day forecasts can be unreliable):

The weather forecasts for next Tuesday, election day:

PA:
Philadelphia: Sunny, 60/44
Pittsburgh: Partly Cloudy, 61/46
OH:
Cincinnati: Partly Cloudy, 67/47
Cleveland: Mostly Sunny, 60/47
Columbus: Partly Cloudy, 64/48
FL:
Miami: Scattered Showers, 80/74
Tampa: Scattered Showers, 82/63

There are, of course, many more cities and states that will matter than this next Tuesday, but I'm essentially working from the standpoint that John McCain cannot reasonably win this election without Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania in particular is a real stretch for him, and he knows it. That's precisely why he's been spending so much time campaigning there recently. The electoral math simply works in Obama's favor at this point.

If major storms come up, and/or if there is a major cold-front in some of these places, I think that could have a significant impact on the election, but so far (knock on wood) so good.