Tooting My Own Horn

On July 19, 2008, I wrote in this blog:

'A few years ago, I suggested that the U.S. housing market would drag down the entire economy, and that our national and personal debt--combined with the larger, global trends in markets--might well set-up a Perfect Storm in which someone staring at graphs and charts murmurs ominously, "It's...happening!"'

(I wrote in 2005 on the website [now defunct] radicalcenter.com that I expected the economy to collapse by the year 2010.)

On August 29, 2008, I wrote:

"I still there may be a 50/50 chance of a major stock market collapse in the next two months."

I've also been saying for awhile to anyone who will listen that I don't think the upcoming Presidential election is going to be close: I think it'll likely be a rout. I predict that Obama will win somewhere on the order of 40 states.

The online futures market Intrade, which has a spooky history of predicting the likelihood of events, is now estimating that Barack Obama will win 353 electoral votes to John McCain's 185.

To put all of this in perspective, though, I didn't think Obama or McCain would be the nominees. I thought it would be John Edwards vs. Jeb Bush. We do not live in that alternate universe, and, after revelations of Edwards's extra-marital affairs came to light, I suspect those distant alternate peoples are wishing they had nominated Obama.